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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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