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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 March 23
WILL LOWER GAS PRICES SPARK SWITCHING IN EUROPE AND ASIA?
Record high prices devastated demand for gas and LNG across Asia and Europe last year. But with prices falling, companies are starting to re-evalua ...
Monday, 20 March 23
NTPC MULLS 5.4 MILLION TONNES COAL IMPORT IN FIRST HALF OF 2023-24: PTI
State-run power giant NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal to meet the supply shortage during the first half 2023-24 fiscal ...
Monday, 20 March 23
S. AFRICA’S EXXARO RESOURCES SAYS COAL PRICES COOLING OFF - REUTERS
South Africa’s Exxaro Resources on Thursday posted a 28% jump in 2022 profit after seeing average coal prices surge more than 150%, but warne ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS TO EUROPE REMAIN HIGH - VESSELS VALUE
Russian LNG exports to Europe remained at very high levels in February at 3.6 million CBM, following a 13 month high in January of 4.1 million CBM. ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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