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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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