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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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