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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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