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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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