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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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