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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 17 July 23
APPROVED AMMONIA-FUELED CONTAINERSHIP - BENEFITS AND RISKS: REED SMITH
Following the news in Offshore Energy that Korea Maritime Consultants has secured approval in principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for it ...
Friday, 14 July 23
CLEAN COAL USE KEY TO DEEP CUTS IN EMISSIONS, STABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY - CHINA DAILY
China must push for the clean use of coal and step up integration of the dirty fuel with carbon capture, utilization and storage to achieve sustain ...
Thursday, 13 July 23
VIETNAM'S COAL EMISSIONS PRIMED FOR SURGE AFTER IMPORTS JUMP - REUTERS
Vietnam’s thermal power emissions are primed for a steep climb this summer after the country’s imports of thermal coal soared to their ...
Monday, 26 June 23
COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION UP IN 2022 - EUROSTAT
In 2022, EU coal production and consumption continued to increase, reaching 349 million tonnes (+5% compared with the previous year) and 454 millio ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
QATAR STRIKES SECOND BIG LNG SUPPLY DEAL WITH CHINA - REUTERS
Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead i ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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