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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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