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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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