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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 22 November 23
INDIA: GOVERNMENT PLANS 1.4 BILLION TONNE COAL OUTPUT BY 2027 - LIVEMINT
The Union coal ministry on Monday announced plans to increase India’s coal production to 1.404 billion tonne by 2027, with an eye to further ...
Wednesday, 22 November 23
OBLIGATION. INDONESIA AIMS TO START COLLECTING LEVIES FROM COAL MINERS IN JANUARY - REUTERS
Indonesia plans to start collecting levies from coal miners in January to be used to compensate miners who sell coal to the state utility at lower ...
Tuesday, 21 November 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS’ CAPACITY UTILISATION WILL IMPROVE TO 65% THIS FISCAL: - CRISIL
Coal-based thermal power units’ plant load factor (PLF) or capacity utilisation will improve to 65 percent in the current fiscal year despite ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS L.P. ANNOUNCES TRANSFORMATIVE TRANSACTION INCLUDING THE ACQUISITION OF 11 NEWBUILD LNG CARRIERS FOR $3.1 BILLION
Capital Product Partners L.P. announced that it has entered into an umbrella agreement (the “Umbrella Agreement”) with Capital Maritime ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
COAL INDIA BEATS Q2 PROFIT VIEW ON HIGH POWER DEMAND AMID WEAK MONSOON - REUTERS
Coal India on Friday reported better-than-expected second-quarter profit, helped by high power demand and boosted production amid a weak monsoon.
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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