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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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