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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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