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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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