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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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