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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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