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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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