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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
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