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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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