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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
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