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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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