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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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