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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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