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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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