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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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