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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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