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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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