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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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