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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 March 23
WILL LOWER GAS PRICES SPARK SWITCHING IN EUROPE AND ASIA?
Record high prices devastated demand for gas and LNG across Asia and Europe last year. But with prices falling, companies are starting to re-evalua ...
Monday, 20 March 23
NTPC MULLS 5.4 MILLION TONNES COAL IMPORT IN FIRST HALF OF 2023-24: PTI
State-run power giant NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal to meet the supply shortage during the first half 2023-24 fiscal ...
Monday, 20 March 23
S. AFRICA’S EXXARO RESOURCES SAYS COAL PRICES COOLING OFF - REUTERS
South Africa’s Exxaro Resources on Thursday posted a 28% jump in 2022 profit after seeing average coal prices surge more than 150%, but warne ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS TO EUROPE REMAIN HIGH - VESSELS VALUE
Russian LNG exports to Europe remained at very high levels in February at 3.6 million CBM, following a 13 month high in January of 4.1 million CBM. ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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