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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 March 23
WILL LOWER GAS PRICES SPARK SWITCHING IN EUROPE AND ASIA?
Record high prices devastated demand for gas and LNG across Asia and Europe last year. But with prices falling, companies are starting to re-evalua ...
Monday, 20 March 23
NTPC MULLS 5.4 MILLION TONNES COAL IMPORT IN FIRST HALF OF 2023-24: PTI
State-run power giant NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal to meet the supply shortage during the first half 2023-24 fiscal ...
Monday, 20 March 23
S. AFRICA’S EXXARO RESOURCES SAYS COAL PRICES COOLING OFF - REUTERS
South Africa’s Exxaro Resources on Thursday posted a 28% jump in 2022 profit after seeing average coal prices surge more than 150%, but warne ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS TO EUROPE REMAIN HIGH - VESSELS VALUE
Russian LNG exports to Europe remained at very high levels in February at 3.6 million CBM, following a 13 month high in January of 4.1 million CBM. ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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