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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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