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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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