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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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