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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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