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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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