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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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