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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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