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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
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