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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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