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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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