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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- VISA Power Limited - India
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- The University of Queensland
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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