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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 17 July 23
APPROVED AMMONIA-FUELED CONTAINERSHIP - BENEFITS AND RISKS: REED SMITH
Following the news in Offshore Energy that Korea Maritime Consultants has secured approval in principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for it ...
Friday, 14 July 23
CLEAN COAL USE KEY TO DEEP CUTS IN EMISSIONS, STABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY - CHINA DAILY
China must push for the clean use of coal and step up integration of the dirty fuel with carbon capture, utilization and storage to achieve sustain ...
Thursday, 13 July 23
VIETNAM'S COAL EMISSIONS PRIMED FOR SURGE AFTER IMPORTS JUMP - REUTERS
Vietnam’s thermal power emissions are primed for a steep climb this summer after the country’s imports of thermal coal soared to their ...
Monday, 26 June 23
COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION UP IN 2022 - EUROSTAT
In 2022, EU coal production and consumption continued to increase, reaching 349 million tonnes (+5% compared with the previous year) and 454 millio ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
QATAR STRIKES SECOND BIG LNG SUPPLY DEAL WITH CHINA - REUTERS
Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead i ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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