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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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