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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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