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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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