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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 November 23
INDIA: GOVERNMENT PLANS 1.4 BILLION TONNE COAL OUTPUT BY 2027 - LIVEMINT
The Union coal ministry on Monday announced plans to increase India’s coal production to 1.404 billion tonne by 2027, with an eye to further ...
Wednesday, 22 November 23
OBLIGATION. INDONESIA AIMS TO START COLLECTING LEVIES FROM COAL MINERS IN JANUARY - REUTERS
Indonesia plans to start collecting levies from coal miners in January to be used to compensate miners who sell coal to the state utility at lower ...
Tuesday, 21 November 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS’ CAPACITY UTILISATION WILL IMPROVE TO 65% THIS FISCAL: - CRISIL
Coal-based thermal power units’ plant load factor (PLF) or capacity utilisation will improve to 65 percent in the current fiscal year despite ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS L.P. ANNOUNCES TRANSFORMATIVE TRANSACTION INCLUDING THE ACQUISITION OF 11 NEWBUILD LNG CARRIERS FOR $3.1 BILLION
Capital Product Partners L.P. announced that it has entered into an umbrella agreement (the “Umbrella Agreement”) with Capital Maritime ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
COAL INDIA BEATS Q2 PROFIT VIEW ON HIGH POWER DEMAND AMID WEAK MONSOON - REUTERS
Coal India on Friday reported better-than-expected second-quarter profit, helped by high power demand and boosted production amid a weak monsoon.
...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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