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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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