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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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