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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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