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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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