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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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