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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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