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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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