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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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