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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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