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Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 1% y-o-y this summer, to 200 million MT. Meanwhile, global LNG demand is seen at 192 million MT, also 1% higher y-o-y.
In China, we should expect to witness a significant boost in the country’s gas demand from 2Q, with economic output returning to normal by 3Q. More specifically, China’s LNG imports are forecast to climb 17% y-o-y this summer. The incremental demand will primarily come from the industrial sector rather than the power sector, where the elevated prices have decreased utilization hours at gas plants. Spot purchases, however, will not increase proportionally with the demand, as they will be capped by the existing high volumes of long-term contracted LNG cargoes. However, a faster recovery in China’s gas demand could snap a significant volume of flexible LNG cargoes available for Europe, especially if Chinese buyers reduce resales of contracted LNG.
Yet, China’s increased LNG imports will be offset by lower demand in Japan and South Korea due to higher electricity generation from nuclear power plants and robust LNG inventories. Consequently, Asia’s total contract supply could exceed its overall demand. With North Asian demand for spot LNG likely to remain muted, cargoes will flow to Europe at higher levels than last year, making up for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
Europe's LNG demand is 71% higher than its contracted supply, therefore the bloc will need to attract 76% of flexible LNG supplies this summer. Europe is currently forecast to completely fill its gas storage by the end of the summer, assuming 10-year average weather. More specifically, the bloc’s gas storage could climb to 12 billion cbm by end of October, which will be more than it needs to meet its 90% storage target. Gas balances, however, will be defined by demand destruction in all sectors (industrial, commercial, and residential). In the scenario of healthy demand, European inventories could hover close to the 80% storage target by the end of September. The shutdown of coal plants in Germany this summer for planned maintenance could provide a boost in gas demand for power generation. However, given the current uncertainty of demand destruction, a more accurate projection could be made when the policymakers will decide on the possible continuation of the emergency demand-reduction measures, effective until the end of March.
After accounting for demand above destination-fixed contracts for Europe and Asia, the market will likely be left with a net 12 million MT of flexible volumes to cater to summer weather variations against base-case forecasts for both regions. A hot summer in North Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) would result in about 2 million MT of incremental LNG demand that will be diverted away from Europe over the season. A stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery could add to flexible cargo needs from Asia and take away some of this available spot volume.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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