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Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 1% y-o-y this summer, to 200 million MT. Meanwhile, global LNG demand is seen at 192 million MT, also 1% higher y-o-y.
In China, we should expect to witness a significant boost in the country’s gas demand from 2Q, with economic output returning to normal by 3Q. More specifically, China’s LNG imports are forecast to climb 17% y-o-y this summer. The incremental demand will primarily come from the industrial sector rather than the power sector, where the elevated prices have decreased utilization hours at gas plants. Spot purchases, however, will not increase proportionally with the demand, as they will be capped by the existing high volumes of long-term contracted LNG cargoes. However, a faster recovery in China’s gas demand could snap a significant volume of flexible LNG cargoes available for Europe, especially if Chinese buyers reduce resales of contracted LNG.
Yet, China’s increased LNG imports will be offset by lower demand in Japan and South Korea due to higher electricity generation from nuclear power plants and robust LNG inventories. Consequently, Asia’s total contract supply could exceed its overall demand. With North Asian demand for spot LNG likely to remain muted, cargoes will flow to Europe at higher levels than last year, making up for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
Europe's LNG demand is 71% higher than its contracted supply, therefore the bloc will need to attract 76% of flexible LNG supplies this summer. Europe is currently forecast to completely fill its gas storage by the end of the summer, assuming 10-year average weather. More specifically, the bloc’s gas storage could climb to 12 billion cbm by end of October, which will be more than it needs to meet its 90% storage target. Gas balances, however, will be defined by demand destruction in all sectors (industrial, commercial, and residential). In the scenario of healthy demand, European inventories could hover close to the 80% storage target by the end of September. The shutdown of coal plants in Germany this summer for planned maintenance could provide a boost in gas demand for power generation. However, given the current uncertainty of demand destruction, a more accurate projection could be made when the policymakers will decide on the possible continuation of the emergency demand-reduction measures, effective until the end of March.
After accounting for demand above destination-fixed contracts for Europe and Asia, the market will likely be left with a net 12 million MT of flexible volumes to cater to summer weather variations against base-case forecasts for both regions. A hot summer in North Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) would result in about 2 million MT of incremental LNG demand that will be diverted away from Europe over the season. A stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery could add to flexible cargo needs from Asia and take away some of this available spot volume.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 February 24
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Thursday, 22 February 24
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Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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- The University of Queensland
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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